Russian Roulette With a Loaded Pistol
- 2-7-2011
- Categorized in: Inflation
For the moment, it's not the United States' economic disaster that is in focus. It's Europe and Japan, that folks are concerned about.
Compare a chart of the euro to the S&P 500 and you'll see a correlation because the euro tends to have an inverse relationship to the US dollar index, as does the S&P 500.
So as you read about yields on European bonds jumping, or Ireland's bailout, or Japan's unbelievable catastrophe, and you're trying to make sense of it all just keep in mind it boils down to one thing: When investors are afraid, they exit the euro, the yen and any other weak currency and that pushes the US dollar index higher, which in turn puts downward pressure on the US stock market and, of course, gold.
While investors are exiting the euro (an action which, by itself, pushes the dollar higher), they are also looking to store that value somewhere, and so far they have exchanged it for our dollar. NB: I said, SO FAR!
A little history:
The United States emerged from World War I with strong industries and a huge trade surplus while Europe lay in ruins. The British treasury surrendered London's historic role of financing world trade by imposing an informal embargo on foreign loans because of the pound sterling's postwar weakness. Since then, the United States has, for the past century, played the historical role of financing world trade.
My question to you is this: Do you believe that the Federal Reserve of today is looking to single-handedly destroy this empire just to manipulate currencies and assets, or do you think the Federal Reserve believes it's making a bet that the US dollar has enough relative strength, when compared to global currency, to satisfactorily maintain value even after the Federal Reserve buys another $3 trillion in treasuries?
It's a game of financial brinks-man-ship. The question becomes: Does Bernanke know what he's doing - or is he playing Russian roulette with a loaded pistol?
Meanwhile - just buy gold and silver coins. They cannot be manipulated!
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