Some Observations When Gold is $1,400!

Here is an interesting and thoughtful interview with Paul Arends on Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch: Click here to view

Given the observations in that interview here are some actions you might consider:

Buy the Consolidations. It is believed that the Commodity Super Cycle will drive commodity prices higher for another eight years… including gold. Every pullback should be another buying opportunity. . . Unless you believe the economy is on a low inflation return to growth.

Some observations: A - Since 2001, the US Dollar Index has tanked 30%… yet gold has risen 300%. With all the downward pressure on the dollar, and inflation on the way, this trend is about to pick up steam.

B - Gold/Dow Ratio Signals $8,000 Gold: During major gold bull markets (and corresponding equity bear markets), gold and the Dow converge at a 1-to-1 ratio. During the last gold bull, the Dow sank to 850 and gold rose to $850. The Dow is now over 10,000… But even if it fell to 8,000, we could see $8,000 gold before this bull run is over! (The other scenario is that the Dow could drop to $1,000 of course.)

C - US Treasury Department Signals $5,468 Gold: Currently, the US government holds about 286.9 million ounces of gold. It has printed about $1.569 trillion worth of paper dollars. If each dollar were backed by gold, that would put the price at $5,468.80 an ounce.

D - Historic Model Predicts $6,214 Gold: During the last gold bull, the yellow metal ran from $35 an ounce to $850, a 24-fold increase. This bull started with gold at $255.95,meaning that if historic trends hold, the price target would be $6,214 an ounce.

E - Demand is Increasing: China revealed that it has doubled its gold holdings to 1,054 tons. Yet that still only equals 1.6% of its overall reserves. As China moves out of U.S. Treasuries and into gold, this will help fuel the next leg of the run-up. Now the big institutions are getting on board as well (including new gold funds like the SPDR Gold Trust, which holds 1,100 TONS of the yellow metal). In 2009 alone investment demand skyrocketed 150%, according to the World Gold Council…

F - Gold Mines Are Running Out! Annual worldwide gold production has decreased by 9.3% since 2001. Considering gold prices have nearly quadrupled since then, why hasn’t production been raised? The answer is simple: There are fewer and fewer new discoveries. And besides, it takes 7-10 years to bring a new discovery online!

All this work for a "worthless" relic?

G - Central Bankers Are Loading Up: China, Russia, Mexico and several other nations have all become net buyers of gold. Venezuela’s Finance Ministry requires that 70% of domestic production be sold in country. The looming crisis with the PIIGS currencies (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) just deepens the urgency.

And finally,

H - Gold is a tiny market: (I just LOVE this statistic!) The entire gold market is worth LESS than Wal-Mart (currently valued around $210 billion)! Very few understand this explosive situation. But its part of why gold-mining analyst Peter Krauth reports: “Everyone needs some exposure to gold in their portfolios, no matter their age or risk tolerance.”


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Sure! Sure!

We don’t need no stinkin’ gold! (Or silver either.) It’s just a barbarous relic of a by-gone era, right? Well, consider this – we’re spending nearly 12% of GDP in borrowed money that we don’t have. In just one month (May) in 2010 we borrowed and spent $333 billion – that is 28% of GDP!

The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) stated in a report: “In actuality, the economic effects of rapidly growing debt would probably be much more disorderly as investors’ confidence in the nation’s fiscal solvency began to erode. …..All in all, the U.S. economy could contract sharply for a long period.” (end quote). This is an 82 page document that is well worth your reading – unless you don’t give a damn! Hey! It’s your money Mr. and Mrs. John Q! If you don’t care, I can assure you your elected officials sure as hell don’t!

Is it any wonder then that Cramer, CNBC, the Wall Street Journal (including MarketWatch), Geithner, the Oracle of Omaha and all the government flacks are fighting so hard to maintain an illusion of control over the economy?

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The U.S. government has printed so much money that the monetary base has swelled from $800 billion to $1.7 trillion. That means the US government has created 2.1.dollars for every 1 dollar there was in America just one year ago.

Gold: The same policies that are sinking the dollar have pushed gold up more than 350% in the last eight years. The Washington Times sums it up this way: “Dollar slides, investors hedge, gold soars”


Gold Mania!

China buys gold while the US whistles past the graveyard.

The Snickers Analogy!

Political statements to the contrary; no one has a clue how this economic malaise will play out – although theories are as prevalent as marijuana at a San Francisco free clinic. The main cause of hyperinflation is a massive and rapid increase in the amount of money that is not supported by a corresponding growth in the output of goods and services. This results in an imbalance between the supply and demand for the money accompanied by a complete loss of confidence in the money, similar to a bank run.

Heads Should Roll!

It's important here to mention the lineage of the Bank for International Settlements. It is the most obscure arm of the Bretton-Woods International Financial architecture but its role is central. John Maynard Keynes wanted it closed down as it was used to launder money for the Nazis in World War II. Run by an inner elite representing the world’s major central banks it controls most of the transferable money in the world. It uses that money to draw national governments into debt for the IMF.

The Bank for International Settlements was a joint creation in 1930 of the world’s central banks, including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Its existence was inspired by Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht, Nazi Minister of Economics and president of the Reichsbank.
Thomas Harrington McKittrick, American President of the BIS in 1944, sat down with his German, Japanese, Italian, British, and American executive staff one morning in May, to discuss such important matters as the $378 million in gold that had been sent to the Bank by the Nazi government after Pearl Harbor for use by its leaders after the war. Gold that had been looted from the national banks of Austria, Holland, Belgium, and Czechoslovakia, or melted down from the Reichsbank holding of the teeth fillings, spectacle frames, cigarette cases and lighters, and wedding rings of the murdered Jews.

Some Observations When Gold is $1,400!

The Commodity Super Cycle will drive commodity prices higher for another eight years… including gold. Add to that the fact that since 2001, the US Dollar Index has tanked 30%… yet gold has risen 300%. Also, during major gold bull markets gold and the Dow converge at a 1-to-1 ratio. During the last gold bull run the Dow sank to 850 and gold rose to $850. All that, and six more bullish gold statistics...

A New Gold Standard?

Is a New Gold Standard Coming? 

World Bank president Robert Zoellick advocates a new global monetary system that might include gold. He states: "Although textbooks may view gold as the old money, markets are using gold as an alternative monetary asset today.”

Gold and the $5 Banana!

Why would anyone want to pay more than the face (or intrinsic) value for anything? That defies common sense – - – doesn’t it?

After all, you wouldn’t go to the grocer and spend $5.00 a pound for bananas when you can buy them all day long for 50 cents a pound. Of course you wouldn’t! And that, dear friend is the argument (in fact the only argument) for buying bullion gold and silver. Buy it cheap – sell it dear!

There’s a problem with that philosophy however, the problem, as it relates to coins, hangs on the question of why you are buying the stuff in the first place. – there is another way to own gold, a way that adds a layer of safety not available to either bullion or bullion coins. Rare coins.

Yeah, I know! The $5 a pound banana!

However, you get something for that extra expense. Something that you cannot get anywhere else: Security!
Security from your financial safety net being confiscated by Uncle Sugar so that he can pay his own bills. 

There is another benefit to investment coins: They pass through an individual’s estate tax free! Since there is no social security number required in the purchase or sale (at least at present) there is no trace of who owns what. They are shutting that window as I write this!

And finally, rare coins hold their value in both bull and bear gold markets. The reason: Scarcity! They are not minting  anymore 1907 St. Gaudens $20 gold pieces and what few do exist are so desired that they hold their value

Building Wealth

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Do you believe that gold and silver will rise in price and value or do you believe they are only barbarous relics of a bygone era, good for jewelry and some industrial uses, but nothing more?

If you believe that central bankers and the Treasury’s printing press is the answer to our financial dilemma then read no more!

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Some Gold Trivia!

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